This has been a weird fall for forecasting (it's been a weird year!). Take for example, the storm that just moved through...I awoke for my Saturday morning shift at 12:30 AM (yes, I really do get up that early on the weekends!). And the first thing I did once the sleepiness left my eyes, was to check the Storm Prediction Center's website (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/). I was a little surprised that a line of strong thunderstorms was headed into northeast Kansas - at 12:30 AM!!!! I previously had these storms forecasted for late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Some days I love those weather models...other days I despise them!

Turned out, the rain moved in and stayed. The storms were training, or creating one storm after another in the same place. It even delayed the KU/Baylor game. But, I don't think KU minded much...since they won. Wasn't the score KU 58, Baylor 10?

One thing I found surprising about this storm system, and you probably will too...was how chilly the temperatures were. We were in the 50s Saturday morning. And the dewpoints weren't particularly high. You would typically need dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s to get rainfall like that. But, this storm was so powerful - a warm front was moving through with just enough moisture from the Pacific Ocean...all ingredients came together to produce the heavy rain.

And then on Sunday, the warm front moved slightly north...and this left several of inches of rain in northwestern Missouri. Flooding is still an issue tonight along the Missouri River at St. Joseph, Atchison and Leavenworth. It will be a minor flood for the Missouri...we should see the water fall below flood stage by Thursday.

Of course, that's if and only if this next system doesn't give us much rain. However, this next storm on Wednesday is also looking like a heavy rainer. It will have a tap into the Pacific Ocean, too...

Enough about rain. This entry was supposed to be about the first frost! On average, frosts usually happen about this time of year. And if the forecast holds true, then it could happen across Kansas City next week. Probably around Tuesday or Wednesday...let's just say that's some mighty cold air to move in from Canada.

Question that will be left up to me this weekend will be how far south does that cold air move? Or does that air move farther east? Time to get your mind thinking about covering your plants...we're just about due to get a little frosty. We're living on borrowed time.