Saturday still looks to be the calm before the storm...this morning, showers were already popping up South of Springfield. The general track has been to the northeast right along and South of the I-44 corridor. These folks are just going to see a tremendous amount of rain over the next couple of days (probably in the neighborhood of 1" to 3"). Through the day here at home...especially by afternoon, a few random showers are possible. Doesn't look that heavy. The atmosphere looks to stay fairly stable today.

That all changes on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has basically our entire viewing area in a slight risk for severe weather. Now, much of what happens depends on the track of the warm front. If it comes farther North and stalls, then we will see more strong storms closer to the metro. If we stay on the cool side, expect a cool rain and the strong storms to stay South.

Here's my thinking of how this will play out...By Sunday morning, the warm front is South of Kansas City. We could see a few showers through the morning hours...but the really unstable air doesn't arrive until late afternoon and lasts through Monday morning. This is when a complex of strong to severe storms will move through our area with the possibility of hail and damaging winds.

The tornado risk has been shifted slightly...still includes much of Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa. This risk area now includes southeastern Kansas to include Wichita and Pittsburg.

Heavy rain and storms should last into Monday morning and maybe Monday afternoon. Flooding will once again be a concern.

Tuesday is dry and sunny. But, another strong storm system arrives Wednesday night as showers. Then, on Thursday, heavy rain is once again possible.

Pete Grigsby and I will keep you informed as to how this first storm progresses this weekend...